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Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson sees a bear market rally that can lead to an 11% gain from here

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The stock market’s historic turnaround last week following a hotter-than-expected inflation report was the beginning of a tradeable short-term rally, according to Morgan Stanley. The S & P 500 closed lower on Friday at 3,583.07, after notching a 2.6% gain the day before following the CPI report. However, stocks were back up on Monday and Michael Wilson, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist who called the bear market, said the “inflation bull trap” can push the broad market index as high as about 4,000 — 11.6% above Friday’s close. Wilson also said his team is watching the 200-day moving average on the S & P 500, a calculation of average closing price over a set period used to identify long-term trends. The S & P’s is currently about 4,155. “[We] would not rule out another attempt to re-take the 200-day moving average. While that seems like an awfully big move, it would be in line with prior bear market rallies this year and prior ones.” However, he added: “We also believe the 200-week moving average will eventually give way like it typically does when earnings forecasts fall by 20% [or more]. The final price lows for this bear are likely to be closer to 3,000-3,200.” Wilson said last month that while inflation and Federal Reserve moves have been the big drivers of the first half of 2022, slowing growth would become a bigger concern in the second half. “These data are some of the most backward-looking economic series and tell us little about the future,” he said Monday. “In our view, inflation has already peaked and could fall rapidly next year as comparisons become very difficult and discounting return.” — CNBC’s Michael bloom contributed to this report.

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